Bitcoin, Bonds, & Big-Tech Bounce As The Dollar Drops To Key Support

Bitcoin, Bonds, & Big-Tech Bounce As The Dollar Drops To Key Support US equities rediscovered their winning ways as the cash markets opened - after weakness overnight following China's disappointing economic data dump. Nasdaq was the big winner on the day. The Dow just could not recover, Small Caps were unch and the S&P managed small gains... Nasdaq's surge was helped by TSLA accelerating exponentially... And AAPL... Both helped by WSB-ers... And MSFT hit a new record high... Source: Bloomberg MSFT is now right behind Apple and Gold as the 3rd largest asset in the world... The aggressive bid for protection as stocks rolled over into early September has been unwound pushing the premium for puts over calls back to 'normal'... Source: Bloomberg From the cash open, VIX was clubbed like a baby seal (again)... Very mixed picture in bond land today with the short-end higher in yields and the long-end bid (5Y +3bps, 30Y -3bps)... Source: Bloomberg 10Y Yields pushed up to last week's highs and found resistance, sliding back below 1.60% to end unchanged... Source: Bloomberg The yield curve (5s30s) continued to flatten dramatically... Source: Bloomberg Short-term rates-markets are now pricing in 2 full rate-hikes by end-2022 (additionally, there are now 100bp of rate hikes priced by the end of 2023, in line with the Fed's dot-plot forecast)... Source: Bloomberg The dollar roller-coastered today but ended lower, at the lows of the day, testing a key support level once again... Source: Bloomberg Crypto markets surged today led by Bitcoin (which topped $62k) ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated BTC futures ETF launch. There was lots of volatility today however and we suspect the next few days will see even more... Source: Bloomberg So the dollar dropped and crypto popped as the 'kink' in the T-Bill curve continued to swell again... Source: Bloomberg Does make you wonder if there is just too much 'meddling'... Gold went nowhere on the day, hovering around pre-FOMC Minutes levels.. Oil prices see-sawed today, with WTI surging to new 7-year-highs before sliding back into the red... Nattie traded lower again - down around 8% and back below $5... Finally, the Copper/Gold ratio is screaming that rates should be higher from here... Source: Bloomberg But, is Dr.Copper's signal "real"? Copper's massive outperformance has been dominated by the fact that the LME is seeing a major inventory problem which has sent the cash premium over 3m maturity deals to a record $1000... Source: Bloomberg Is another oil-esque delivery debacle here? Tyler Durden Mon, 10/18/2021 - 16:01
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