from Full Spectrum Survival: TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
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Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Experts Tell FDA Vaccines ‘Harm More People Than They Save,’ But NIH Director Believes Boosters Will Be Approved in Coming Weeks
by Megan Redshaw, Childrens Health Defense: During the Sept. 17 meeting of the FDA advisory panel to recommend whether to approve a third dose of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine, physicians pointed to data they said confirm the risks of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine don’t outweigh the benefits. National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Dr. Francis Collins said […]
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Renter Nation? US Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Surge In August
Renter Nation? US Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Surge In August
After an unexpectedly large plunge in July, Housing Starts were expected to rebound (very modestly) in August while July's small jump in Building Permits was expected to be erased by a drop in August. In reality, both Starts & Permits beat expectations handily.
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Housing starts rose 3.9% MoM in August (vs +1.0% exp) and July's 7.0% drop was revised higher to 6.2% drop.
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Building Permits soared 6.0% MoM in August (vs -1.8% exp) but July's 2.6% rise was revised lower to a 2.3% rise - the August jump is biggest since January.
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, single-family starts fell 2.8% to 1076k while multifamily starts soared 21.6% to 539k in August.
The picture was the same in Permits where rental (multifamily) permits exploded 19.7% to 632K, an all time high; while single-unit permits were flat at 1.054MM
Total permits and starts SAARs are still well below post-COVID peaks however...
Source: Bloomberg
Is this 'good' news for The Fed meeting today and tomorrow? And therefore 'bad' news for markets? Tyler Durden Tue, 09/21/2021 - 08:40
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Monday, September 20, 2021
When The Levee Breaks...
When The Levee Breaks...
Via AdventuresInCapitalism.com,
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break
When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay.
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, Lord
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan
It’s got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home
Oh well, oh well, oh well
Don’t it make you feel bad
When you’re tryin’ to find your way home
You don’t know which way to go?
If you’re goin’ down south
They got no work to do
If you’re going down to Chicago.
A-ah, a-ah, a-ah.
Cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good
No, cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move, ooh.
Led Zeppelin
To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. To the Federal Reserve, every problem is met with more liquidity. Unfortunately, the Fed has very little control of where this liquidity goes. First, it went into equity markets, fueling an outright equity bubble. Then it overflowed into PE and VC, creating bubblicious demons there as well. Then it overflowed into meme stonks and shit-coins. Not content with the damage they wrought on the financial economy, the liquidity began overflowing into the real economy. There’s currently an epic housing bubble, leading to increasing wealth inequality and polarization.
Now, this liquidity is overflowing into the everyday economy - assuming you can even find the item you seek. In the past, only hard money weirdos complained about the gradual creep of inflation - now everyone feels it and has their own story. Everyone is painfully aware that inflation is present and is likely to stay.
Coincidentally, this is all happening at a time when the government is actively destroying the normal supply response to higher pricing. You want more labor? Nope, there’s stimmies. You want to keep your existing employees? Nope, anyone un-vaxed must quit. You want to add a facility? Nope, permits take years. You want to finance growth? Nope, they only finance ESG projects. The free market is an interplay of supply and demand. If you restrict supply and stimulate demand, eventually pricing responds.
For the past few months, I’ve been joking that the Fed will keep going until something breaks. Of course, in the Fed’s jaded minds, they’re worrying about the left tail (downside equity risk) and they’re continuing to flood the market with liquidity. What if the Fed is now the cause of the left tail risk? What if the right tail (parabolic upside commodity action) caused by this liquidity is what actually breaks the market? What if the Fed has finally added too much liquidity? Maybe the levee is going to break.
Back in June, I wrote about how ESG = Energy Stops Growing. It’s already starting to play out. Look at what European electricity prices are doing. Now assume this happens to gasoline and diesel. Consider what happens if it is a cold winter. Could natural gas go crazy? Propane. Ethane. Heating Oil. They’re all waking up. These are the feedstocks for everything in our lives. The whole periodic table is going mental. There’s even food inflation—the sort of inflation that gets very political. The inflation is everywhere that the government gets in the way of supply while increasing demand.
After decades of irrelevance, inflation is about to matter again. Energy is the big dog, but wage growth is also here to stay—it will impact margins and eventually get imputed into earnings multiples. There will be plenty of other areas with inflation as the government continues to meddle in the supply response. Equity multiples do not do well when inflation roars, particularly if the starting point is as extremely overvalued as it is today.
I’m the “Project Zimbabwe” guy, but I also believe in Kevin Muir’s “Rolling Bubbles.” The history of financial markets is that once a bubble peaks, it rarely reflates. Could the bubble in duration assets (like high-multiple tech and Ponzi) finally be over? Could the bubble in inflation assets just be starting? Could the unwind of both historic extremes be unusually violent, as so much of the world’s capital is leaning the wrong direction? I know where I have my bets. I expect inflation assets to surprise to the upside, even as the bubble in duration bursts.
I expect energy to be the proximate cause. Watch it closely. Demand is still recovering from Covid, yet energy prices are already at multi-year highs.
There are air pockets where supply doesn’t exist at any price.
These are the warning signs. Something wild is brewing.
My friends at Capitalist Exploits had this chart in their most recent weekly (if you’re not a subscriber, I highly recommend it). Look’s overdue to mean revert.
This isn’t a call to get out of the markets tomorrow. This certainly isn’t a call to short anything. Rather, this is a call to re-evaluate your book. There’s a massive rotation underfoot here. As it gathers speed—I think it will surprise people.
A month ago, I reminded everyone that the Fed is a political animal. If inflation becomes a political issue, the Fed will be forced to act. Is anyone prepared for that? What if they cannot fix the inflation? What if the politicians demand that they get aggressive as inflation overshoots? Will the Fed be forced into more extreme actions? This is the scenario that no one is contemplating—what if we should all be thinking about it??
Watch energy. It’s the lynchpin of everything else inflation related. As that roars, I expect duration to get mauled…
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If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more at http://www.adventuresincapitalism.com Tyler Durden Mon, 09/20/2021 - 13:45
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"Why Aren't You Here?" - Democratic Del Rio Mayor Calls Out Biden, Harris For Failing To Visit Border In Crisis
"Why Aren't You Here?" - Democratic Del Rio Mayor Calls Out Biden, Harris For Failing To Visit Border In Crisis
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,
Democratic Del Rio Mayor Bruno Lozano has called out President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for failing to make an appearance at his town as it battles with an overwhelming illegal immigrant crisis that has left Border Patrol agents struggling to process thousands of people.
More than 15,000 illegal immigrants, including Haitian, Cuban, and Venezuelan nationals, have illegally entered the United States in recent days and taken shelter underneath the border bridge connecting Del Rio, a Texas town of about 35,000 people, to Ciudad Acuña, Mexico.
While numerous official figures and congressmen, including Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), have visited the town, shared images, and urged the Biden administration to take action, both Biden and Harris have been noticeably absent.
Del Rio now: US on the left, Mexico on the right.
Constant stream back and forth as the illegal immigrants get supplies in Mexico.
Law enforcement preparing against a rush for the border fence as the aliens find out they might be deported. pic.twitter.com/TgxK5Sdrv1 — Charlotte Cuthbertson (@charlottecuthbo) September 18, 2021
On Sept.18, as Pfluger warned that the situation has “reached boiling point,” Harris made an appearance at Howard University where she led a coin toss at the university’s football event.
Questioning why the vice president, who in March was tasked with handling the border crisis, had not yet visited Del Rio, Lozano asked on Twitter on Saturday, “The VP is able to visit the fun events across the country, while American communities continue to grapple with failed immigration reform. Where is the visit to Del Rio, TX?”
In a separate post alongside aerial footage showing thousands of immigrants surrounding the overcrowded bridge in makeshift tents, the mayor wrote, “We need you to visit Del Rio, Texas.”
Migrants stand by the International Bridge between Mexico and the U.S., in Del Rio, Texas, on Sept. 16, 2021. (Office of U.S. Congressman Tony Gonzales/via Reuters)
Lozano also responded to a Twitter post shared by Harris on Saturday that read, “The U.S. is falling behind, on a global scale, on investing in childcare. We invest fewer public dollars in early childhood education and care relative to GDP than almost all other developed countries. With our Build Back Better Agenda, @POTUS and I are determined to change that.”
Questioning Harris and Biden’s failure to visit Del Rio again, he asked, “The US is failing to protect its borders. Why aren’t you here? @POTUS.”
Haitians who were deported from the United States deplane at the Toussaint Louverture International Airport, in Port au Prince, Haiti, on Sept. 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Joseph Odelyn)
The Del Rio Mayor also engaged the president, responding to a Twitter post that Biden shared on Saturday regarding his plan not to raise takes for anyone making under $400,000 a year.
Lozano replied, “The President has a plan for taxes. Where is the plan to protect our southern border?”
The mayor also asked Biden directly, “Where is your plan to protect American communities at the southern border? I spoke to Governor Abbott today. We have developed a temporary plan, we’d like to see yours.”
On Sunday, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said it will start expelling adult male illegal immigrants who have entered the United States at Del Rio. Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz told Fox News that single adult men will be expelled under the federal government’s Title 42 rule.
However, most family units who have crossed the border illegally will be processed and released into the United States with a notice to appear in an immigration court.
Ortiz said at a Sept. 19 news conference that deportation flights sending some illegal immigrants back to Haiti have already begun. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/20/2021 - 13:14
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9/11 Conspiracy Theories Part 3: Most Dangerous Book in the World- 9/11 as a Mass Ritual Book Club Week 1
[Right Wing Daily] On today’s episode of the Conspiracy Theories and Unpopular Culture podcast we continue our journey of decoding the occult symbolism and conspiracy theories around 9/11! On this special series of four shows, we’ll commemorate the 20th anniversary of the biggest PsyOp of occult symbolism EVER! Part 3 begins our book club deep dive into SK Bain’s book […]
The post 9/11 Conspiracy Theories Part 3: Most Dangerous Book in the World- 9/11 as a Mass Ritual Book Club Week 1 appeared first on IlluminatiWatcher.
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